Eur.Usd
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Eur.Usd #41
26/3. Move continued and always the possibility to eventually head towards the uptrend line visible on the weekly chart creating another 123 pattern with a possible move off the trend-line. Chart updated on #41
30/3. The move since Friday night and the opening gap has been the most meaningful retrace north since the fall from the high in mid-March. A block of potential resistance (4H) is overhead so we need to monitor what happens around that point and when a pattern occurs to reverse the current action the Euro looks to continue south in the medium term.
31/3. The Kumo resistance overhead mentioned yesterday halted northbound progress and currently there is a slight retracement happening which is hesitating on the 4H Kijun. Chikou 3358 just below as further potential support
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Gbp.Usd #37
25/3. The initial Bear Flag broke to the downside as expected and followed the previous days Purple Trace giving an additional 150 pips. A 4H Doji presently situated on the Chikou at 4892 could see a little support coming in although overall the chart still looks quite bearish until we see something like a 123 pattern.
26/3. There was a move off the Chikou support 4892 which I mentioned as a possibility yesterday and that tracked up north to a maximum of 147 pips before reversing at Chikou 4975 and continuing its bearish move down 200 pips halting on an uptrend line visible on the daily chart.
30/3. This would appear to be in a similar position to Euro and a block of thick Kumo overhead should form heavy going and here we can look for a reversal pattern
31/3. Currently testing the 4H Kumo and old broken uptrend line. Awaiting some pattern developments here to judge the next move. Daily Kijun 5129 appears to be holding northern progress at the moment.
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Usd.Cad #40
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Aud.Usd #42
26/3. The move continued and the next hurdles sitting below are daily KS at 9024, Chikou at 9007 and Senkou B at 8950. (see previous chart)
30/3. This is a classic reason why we always like to book profits. Aud became quite strong after some hawkish mumblings from RBA’s Stevens suggesting April tightening after previously warning about the prolonged overheating in housing market. This suggests RBA may be expected to hike by 25-bps to 4.25%. Current action is though the 4H Kumo and with a slight break over the downtrend line – maybe testing the bears resolve so we can wait for a reversal to confirm what might happen next.
31/3. In today’s announcement the retail sales (-1.4% against 0.2%) were worse than expected and because the short term market appeared to have got themselves long expecting a good retail sales number they now appear to have jumped ship for the moment. The more important RBA announcement is coming next Tuesday re the housing market. A bear flag is still visible on the daily chart.
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Aud.Nzd #45
26/3. From a technical point of view the action is still within the bull flag boundaries and holding above those twin red (old resistance) lines. Awaiting a reversal signal within the flag formation to judge the next move. Chart Updated on #45
30/3. 4H chart gave a derivative of a Morning Star reversal pattern which suggested a possible move higher from the lower trend-line to resistance at KS. Maximum was about 110 pips if any members were playing this one. Presently consolidating just below the 4H Kijun
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Aud.Jpy #43
25/3. Still cautious with this one until the potential shoulder confirms with something like a 123 pattern.
30/3. The shoulder which started to look good on Friday has now increased a little higher. Possible resistance at 85.07 and we await a pattern here to suggest the next direction
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Aud.Cad #46
26/3. Edging closer to a point where the action must breakout.
30/3. Action is still under the daily Kijun and within the coil. As it looks at the moment waiting for a break and test would give more confidence of direction.
31/3. Yesterdays ‘Long Legged Doji’ show indecision, and today’s candle has started as a long black. If this continues there will be an Evening Star type pattern tomorrow with the bias still swayed to the south.
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Nzd.Usd #47
26/3. I mentioned on thoughts yesterday there could be a possible test of the Senkou B at 7066, and the action spiked higher traveling exactly to the dotted red line shown on my last chart (Chikou 7097 within the thick Kumo). There was around 60 pips in each direction if anyone was day-trading/scalping.
30/3. Still potentially in a bigger Bear Flag. If anyone is into EW counting it looks like already 5 down, and 3 up at the moment. So if that is correct EW theory would suggest 5 more waves down again.
31/3. Inside the big flag you can see a small bear flag on the 1H.
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Usd.Jpy #34
26/3. The powerful move could not even be halted by an Evening Star Pattern and the rise continued (max 480 for long term holders). Presently there is another possible Evening Star over Chikou 92.58, and we must see some form of retracement at some point along the way.
30/3. Resting at the moment and we will see if this little retracement forms a small flag or a bigger test of the broken TL.
31/3. Small Bull Flag mentioned yesterday was broken and tested with the action continuing the path of the trace.
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Eur.Jpy #48
31/3. Price action tested the Head and Shoulders Neckline on yesterdays daily candle, and is trying again now to break through.
Eur.Gbp #36
25/3. The last 4 days have produced 4 black candle bodies inside the white of Friday last week. Once of these candles also spiked to test the Kijun at .8904 . Pre-empting a possible candle pattern we could think about the Three Rising pattern as a possibility. To confirm that we would need to see a long white either today or tomorrow. One thing to remember with 3 rising or 3 falling patterns is that they can have 2-5 candle inside. Don’t just look for the text book ‘3’
30/3. The action tested that yellow box zone again before heading higher with a maximum so fat of 130 pips off the low point. The current action is out of the Narrowing Wedge and once tested that could indicate a further continuation.
31/3. The upper Wedge line has moved slightly due to yesterdays dip, but the action is still in a potential bullish wedge and appears to be supported by forward bullish Kumo
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Eur.Nzd #32
New Zealand Time
Wed 3:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m, retail sales
Wed 3:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
Here’s a world clock if you want to calculate these times in your time zone
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