The Aussie has hit my projected target .8888 as mentioned in the previous post. I know quite a few of our members rode this at least part of the way, and some all of the way, and all our Chinese members took 8888 as an omen …..Anyway +300 pips at it stands at the moment.
We have been discussing this today on ‘comments’. The potential appears to be currently now for either a Read more…
This pair still looks bearish on the 4h chart for the medium- longer term trading and a good move down.
Lets look at the signs. Price action is struggling to make any headway in the thick Kumo, and ahead Kumo has turned bearish. Chikou Span is now testing the plot from below and Tenkan Sen is still on the bearish side of Kijun Sen.
There can be various levels of risk entry. I will mention these as they appear.
Some people are already in from yesterday and this is the higher of the risk points (but with risk sometimes comes better reward). The next point of lower risk will be a lower high signal confirmation on a retrace. The lowest risk entry will be once the price breaks the neckline and tests/confirms the break. This point will be the safer option of all.
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Just an update on the Aussie because I know many members who got on the last ride are disappointed with the stop out on the recent surge, the reasons for which I have already explained, but……
Well, this type of announcement can take everyone by surprise and its not something we like to see happen to our members. We trade these trades ourselves and we don’t like it any-more than anyone else, but unfortunately the odd loss is part of the trading environment. The members who entered on the original trades made good money, but unfortunately the ones trading along with this last move lost out.
So what happened?
The trade got stopped out because of unexpected and extremely high employment figures which obviously got the world excited. Forecast was for 5.3K and it was actually 31.2K. Six times forecast – could that be really possible? Seems rather strange to me. Anyway we need to let the dust settle, re-evaluate the chart and see what it looks like once the reality of other matters come back into play. Just at the moment it looks like the action could go a little higher with the euphoria of this event, and then perhaps the reality will sink in. Lets see, and do not concern yourself, we will reclaim these pips for members.
Remember – when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Expect volatility for while with Aussie because in 3.5 hours there are 2 Australian’ red flagged’ announcements.
1.30pm NZTime. Employment Change and Unemployment rate.
The price action is currently fighting to penetrate the Kumo on the Daily chart and that is what may to be holding up progress. All the signs appear to point to a continuation south, and while the Daily chart has some thick Kumo to penetrate the shorter time-frames are already through bearish Kumo. Chikou is just trying to edge through the plot for the second time. Here’s the chart so you can see what I am referring to.
Aussie moved down overnight and we took off some trades at +50 pips on the second entry we took a couple of days ago. We still also have a few positions running from the first order from about a week ago and we have new positions taken at the same time as our late entrants to this trade. This latter trade managed to get to + 20 at one point, but its not giving in easily.The first trade is over 200 pips. Stand by for a possible change in SL once we see this move in the right direction.
Please note. I do not count the pips from multiple trades in the monthly total. I only count taken pips from one trade lot.
The Aussie tested the Kumo edge and produced a reversal pattern overnight, so I think for those that are not in we will make a start and we can add more
Not sure why all these trades want to set up when the office is closed.
To keep everyone in the picture this is where I am looking to get short. All being well we’ll get a move to test the Kumo and then receive a good reversal candle pattern to prove the bears are in charge. The maximum on this move should be circa .9180 – .9200 area so our experienced traders can watch and pounce or scale in as they desire. For others I would prefer to see the move to the Kumo and ultimate rejection to get the safest possible entry point. This could happen early AM NZT or in about 8-10 hours, and so I will put up a message on the Open Forex Signals area as soon as humanly possible (access from the right hand side of front page).
Experienced members may also be able to play the purple trace north.
From various comments and e-mails we know many members managed to get 200+ pips out of the last move, and we are now waiting for a proper retracement to get back in to the trade so that the ones that missed out last time can get a slice of the action and maybe around 200+ pips.
I’m still waiting for the proper retrace which I mentioned on Friday/Saturday. Yesterdays little blip was not a noteworthy retracement , and I’m sure everyone is pleased I didn’t suggest taking a short position yesterday as they would now be nicely out of pocket. Anyway, here’s a chart so that you can see what I’m looking at, and if this gets going again the target could be in the region of another 200+ pips. The FX market is a bit slow today, but we’ll see if anything gets moving once the UK opens. In the meantime the purple trace may be useful for experienced/active traders only.
